Bob, thank you for your post. I will try to hunt down some of the dozens of articles and studies I have read on this subject and post links to some of the more pertinent ones. But I just don't have time right now. I haven't even found time to read all the links you posted on the effects of light exposure yet.
..."Inbreeding depression occurs when plants have too small of a population of fellow breeders during pollination. It causes future generations of plants to be weak as demonstrated by slow growth, poor vigor and disease resistance, along with poor fruit production. Some varieties of plants such as tomatoes, which can self-pollinate, have a much smaller problem with inbreeding depression than plants such as corn, that require a population of at least 200 plants to keep from inbreeding depression."...
Corn is one of the most susceptible plants to inbreeding depression known. It is also probably the most widely studied plant there is. We grow 500 or more for seed production. Anyone can try their own experiment and quickly see the results of inbreeding depression, unless you really like corn and grow a huge patch. Save seed from your garden corn and plant it next year. You will see that your plants do not seem to grow nearly as well as the year before and the yield will fall greatly. Plant those seeds again next year and you will see severely stunted plants and drastically reduced yields of 25% or less than the original planting. In just 3 generations it will be totally worthless.
Tomatoes lie near the other end of the scale. Most do self pollinate before insects can get to them. Heirlooms tomatoes require 100 feet of separation and modern varieties even less. It all has to do with the way the flower is structured. At the very far end of the scale is lettuce. It is extremely difficult to get a cross even when planted together in the same row. The "official" recommended separation distance is 10', but nearly all lettuce self pollinates before the flowers even open. Tobacco lies in between. It is no where near corn in its vulnerability to inbreeding depression. The flower structure of nicotianas is somewhat different than tomatoes and it cross pollinates much easier at a rate of 2-10%, depending on the number of pollinators available.
Tobacco can suffer from inbreeding depression like any other plant. However, I do agree with your numbers and reasoning as to why tobacco is far less vulnerable to inbreeding depression than many other plants are. But ponder this bit of math. I take seed from 5 plants and randomly mix them together. Next season I grow 5 more plants from that same seed. The odds of me picking a seed from all 5 of the original plants for my second generation is only 20%. Statistically I am likely to only have 3 of my original 5 plants represented in generation 2. Thus the bottleneck of genes begins. Genes which may not be visibly expressed began to be lost, which may affect the plants overall viability, disease resistance, and production.
Closed pollination increases this effect even more. There have been many studies showing that open pollination will produce seed with a higher viability, better disease resistance, and production, than seed from selfed plants will. The highest quality seed will always come from large populations of open pollinated plants. I recently read a study done on the predation rate on plants from closed pollinated seed vs open pollinated seed, which until recent years was not a factor that was even considered. The study was done on a type of Horse Nettle, which is also a member of the Solanaceae family. By the 3rd generation the closed pollinated plants suffered 2.5 times the predation rate than the open pollinated plants did. I will try to find that link.
Saving seed from your own plants to grow or to share with others is one thing. I have no problem with that. But if you are producing seed for commercial sale, every possible effort should be made to produce the highest quality seed possible. Would you want to buy anything less? And if I were saving seed for a seed bank, which could very likely be the only source for that particular strain in the future, I would make every possible effort to preserve the genetics and purity of that strain.
Ok, gtg for now. I have a date with my hoe.
Sky